The Powerball in MN is up to a prize of $580 million dollars, or a $380 million lump sum. When it gets this high everyone gets really excited to buy tickets. Then you have the “smart people” who make fun of people who buy Powerball tickets.

They say things like this:

  • “The lottery is a tax only on stupid people.”
  • “Playing the lottery is like throwing money away.”
  • “You are more likely to get hit by lightning than win the lottery!”

Which am I? I am the guy who makes fun of the people who make fun of the people who buy Powerball tickets.

I will confirm that it is true, you will probably live your entire life and never win the lottery. HOWEVER is it actually a bad bet? Well according to MNLottery.com your odds of winning the Powerball jackpot is 1:175,000,000 and you stand to win some portion of $380,000,000. Guys, that isn’t a bad bet. Even considering you split it, even four ways, you stand to win $95 mil, I have seen people make dumber bets when they rent a movie they aren’t sure about. Ok sure, taxes right? Alright lets just say you get only 50% of the pool. $180 million whatever. Still positive expected value!

Also consider that going from 0 tickets to 1 ticket increases your chance to win by HUGE (infinite?) margin. Consider that winning the Powerball will give you so much money you will never need to do anything ever again. Is that worth $1 to you? Even if your odds are 1:175million. The answer should be yes, unless you are a moron. Or unless $1 is actually very important to you. In which case you should do the responsible thing and spend it on rice.

Want to know something else cool about Powerball? If you buy a ticket every single day for your entire life and you live to be 80, you would have spent $30,000 on Powerball. But if you hit you will win $180,000,000 or more! It’s a classic lose small win huge opportunity. This is the kind of bet you dream of.

So who is really the stupid one?

I need to go buy a ticket.

Unexpected gift / she can't wait to oblige me / taxi-flavored socks

Unexpected gift
she can’t wait to oblige me
taxi-flavored socks
Getting ready time / the mirror gets sick of me / perfecting my knot

Getting ready time
the mirror gets sick of me
perfecting my knot
Pinterest frenzy / The masses hungry for knots / give them what they want

Pinterest frenzy
The masses hungry for knots
give them what they want
Letterpress word game / I love the majority / obvious reasons

Letterpress word game
I lose the majority
obvious reasons
Thanksgiving's approach / warmer than usual / everything pumpkin

Thanksgiving’s approach
warmer than usual
everything pumpkin
MOG / A simple Moogle? / Set foot in his dance floor; / you will understand.

MOG
A simple Moogle?
Set foot in his dance floor;
you will understand.
CYAN / Master of the blade. / Slowly and deliberately / winning my battles.

CYAN
Master of the blade.
Slowly and deliberately
winning my battles.
RELM / Such realism, / a talented young artist. / Don’t provoke her sketch.

RELM
Such realism
a talented young artist.
Don’t provoke her sketch.
GAU / A boy raised by beasts. / Ferocious like a tiger, / fearless like a child.

GAU
A boy raised by beasts.
Ferocious like a tiger,
fearless like a child.
CELES / Imperial pawn, / saw the error of her ways. / Joined the opera

CELES
Imperial pawn,
saw the error of her ways.
Joined the opera
STRAGO / An ancient wizard / with his own brand of magic. / Sporting a Mohawk.

STRAGO
An ancient wizard
with his own brand of magic.
Sporting a Mohawk.
GOGO / A jack of all trades. / A man of many talents. / But none of his own…

GOGO
A jack of all trades.
A man of many talents.
But none of his own…
UMARO / Giant mindless beast. / Just stay and keep the ship safe. / Liability.

UMARO
Giant mindless beast.
Only good for guard duty
Liability.
modern conference / the audience distracted? / —twitter note taking

modern conference
the audience distracted?
—twitter note taking
MobCon twitter trend / those not in attendance… / assume 'more bacon'

MobCon twitter trend
those not in attendance…
assume “more bacon”
internet problems / technology conference / inevitable

internet problems
technology conference
inevitable
unexpectedly / this dessert induces sweat / spicy chocolate cake

unexpectedly
this dessert induces sweat
spicy chocolate cake
most common question / the registration desk— / where is the bathroom?

most common question
the registration desk—
where is the bathroom?
CELES: Imperial pawn / saw the error of her ways / Joined the opera

CELES
Imperial pawn
saw the error of her ways
Joined the opera
SETZER: Dashing gambler / A deck of cards, pair of dice / Weapons in his hands.

SETZER
Dashing gambler
A deck of cards, pair of dice
Weapons in his hands.
TERRA: The green haired beauty / Magic is a toy to her / thanks to Esper genes.

TERRA
The green haired beauty
Magic is a toy to her
thanks to Esper genes.
LOCKE: It isn’t stealing / if you “find” it on a corpse / It’s treasure hunting.

LOCKE
It isn’t stealing
if you “find” it on a corpse
A treasure hunter
EDGAR: Unorthodox style / All the monsters run in fear / When the chainsaw starts.

EDGAR
Unorthodox style
All the monsters run in fear
When the chainsaw starts.
SABIN: Martial arts master / With clenched fists he unleashes / The 'Bum Rush Technique.'

SABIN
Martial arts master
With clenched fists he unleashes
The “Bum Rush Technique.”
SHADOW: Out of ninja stars? / Everything is a weapon / if thrown hard enough.

SHADOW
Out of ninja stars?
Everything is a weapon
if thrown hard enough.

If you haven’t seen it, Bing has launched a new advertising campaign called “Bing it On.” The TV spots show a street kiosk with people comparing the search results from Bing and Google side by side (not knowing which is which) and choosing the better results page. Of course on the TV spot they are all so surprised that they considered Bing to be better. It is easy to scoff and not take this seriously, obviously they would show that … I bet I would always choose Google! Google is better!

This is similar to the Pepsi challenge from my childhood. Pepsi ran an identical campaign. Pepsi challenged people to choose the better-tasting cola in a blind taste test against Coca Cola. I thought the same exact thing when I was a little kid: “That’s stupid, they only show the people who choose Pepsi, I bet I would choose coke!” Why would I say such a thing? Because I was a coke drinker that’s why. My dad always purchased Coke and he knew everything at the time and Coke was the best right?

One time while shopping in the Mall of America I saw the Pepsi Challenge. It was right there in front of me, I was walking right at it. There was no crowd like in the commercials, just a little stand with a guy there and he offered the challenge to me. I tried both, easily identified Coke with a smirk on my face. “I guess Coke really is your favorite.” The guy said to me in a strangely peppy tone. I felt like a winner. I felt like I stuck it to the man. Like I proved something. You want to know what though? Pepsi tasted better.

The thing with the cola wars is people pick a side without evaluating both. A “Coke Person” will always pick Coke, and since Coke is always around he may go ten or more years without ever even tasting a Pepsi. This challenge puts Pepsi in his mouth. It challenges him to try it. The test isn’t “Find the Coke!” the test is “Which is better?” even if you are a Coke person, even if you pick Coke, you have NO CHOICE but to see that at the very least Pepsi is pretty decent.

It is a very brave advertising campaign. People are compelled to “beat it” instead of actually objectively choosing the best result. They want to embarrass the company that is claiming to be better than their favorite product. However they do get you to try it.

I am a Google person. I have used Google for as long as I can remember. Before I took the Bing it On challenge I had never used Bing. I saw the commercials on TV and I never used it. Why should I, It’s not like it can be better than Google. Right? I would have lived my entire life saying Bing is a waste of time, probably even making fun of people that used it.

The results? You can read a detailed analysis of my results at the MentorMate blog. Rest assured, Google is the better search engine. Your blind devotion to Google is justified! But if I had to use Bing for a week, I would probably get by just fine. Before this I probably would have lived my entire life never having used Bing. I used to scoff at Bing. Now I will admit Bing is a fair search engine. I would consider this campaign a success.